Sunspot Photo from 8/29/09

This year is on pace to have the lowest sunspot activity on record. This photo taken yesterday shows ZERO activity. Some meteorologists think that reduced sunspot activity correlates with colder winters.

Mystery Photo #2

* * From where (exactly) was this photo taken? * *

It's ALL Good Starting Now.

Progress at The Ski Bowl

Photo by Darkside Shaman

Google Trends: Winter Outlook

Google Trends reports on volume for specific search queries. This graph shows that North Americans start to get curious about the outlook for winter right just before Labor Day. Interest peaks in long term winter forecasting in October and then dies in December.

(click to enlarge.)

It's interesting to note the importance given to Joe Bastardi's predictions in this area.  The point above labeled "A" is correlated with news story that deal with Bastardi's criticism of NWS for echoing his predictions, when he felt they should be leading. Isn't is possible that Joe's call was based on the same science, and therefor both predictions were aligned?

Gore Mountain from Route 8

Ski Bowl Liftline Pitch

Gore marketing has implied that the new run under the skibowl liftline is the second only to Rumor in steepness. So...Rumor, Skibowl Liftline, and then Lies comes third? I'll tell you one thing...SkiBowl Liftline LOOKS pretty steep on the topo. But...that pitch was originally a "T" Bar...how could it be that steep?

I decided to see if I could figure it out. I have a hard time with grade to degree conversion. I have no idea if these numbers are correct and I'd like to be corrected if I'm off. On the Gore website...in the History Timeline...they list the dimensions of the original ski bowl T-bar as 3000' long and 830' of vertical. The new lift uses this same run...so I'll assume those numbers are close. On that same page, the percent grade for Rumor is listed at 70%. It's undetermined if that pitch is for the headwall or the average of the whole run.

I asked a mathematician to figure the horizontal run for the triangle that has 830' vertical along the y-axis, (TBD) horizontal on the x-axis and the 3000' ski lift as the "hypotenuse" of the triangle. The number for the "run" (as in rise/run) is 2,883. So I figure the grade% for the new lift as 830/2883 = or 29%. Here a some grade>angle conversion numbers I got from Tony Crocker of bestsnow.net: 100% grade = 45 degree angle 75% grade = 36.9 degree angle 50% grade = 26.6 degree angle 25% grade = 14 degree angle According to the website's 70% number this would put Rumor around 35 degrees which jives with numbers I've heard in the past for Rumor.

Extrapolating ... the SkiBowl's 29% might average around 17 degrees. There's nothing to say that PARTS of the Ski Bowl slope couldn't approach parts of Rumor for steepness, but on average it looks way less steep. Hard to believe most of Lies isn't steeper.

*Thanks to all at FTO and Skiadk who contributed to this post.

New Pics from Ski Bowl

* * * Photos by Darkside Shaman * * *

Terrain Map for Reference

Today was HOT

For the first time this year it was hot on my walk home for lunch. I tried to think cool thoughts. This pic was taken on a super cold day, fairly soon after a major thaw/freeze. It was the second day in a row they were blowing bigtime on Twister. It was by far the best run on the mountain. This pic cools me off:

The Bugs

Questions about bug voracity during bug season seem a little pointless. "Hey man how are the bugs this year?" I mean if it's after May 10 and before July 15, the black flies are probably going to be hungry. WHEN exactly the season ends is another matter. I don't bring the family until August 15... the women - wife and baby....they just don't like the bugs. There has been SO much rain this year... I was wondering if anyone in North Creek has been up in the woods and in the hills recently. I'm thinking we may skip our August weekend this year and stick with our week in September. Any input is welcome. Please post a comment below.