NOAA and many other forecasters are calling for a La Niña winter. The map below isn’t a forecast for this winter as much as it’s an overview of weather conditions of the La Niña winters past.
El Niño winters, like last year, seem to be more boom or bust for Eastern skiers. La Niña seems less likely to be extreme in either direction. From a seasonal snow total perspective an average year would be a major improvement in the Adirondacks. For the Catskills, last year is going to be hard to beat.
This map matches the winter forecast by Joe Bastardi posted in August.
For us on the East Coast: What sets up in the North Atlantic is more important than what goes on in the Pacific.. It’s all about the -NAO… Pray for a Greenland Block and all will be good.
NAO is important but there is a lot more going on. Last season NAO helped the first half of the season but nothing was happening during the second half of the season regardless once El Nino took over. The few big storms we got during the second half of last year were mostly in the dense snow category.
I don’t put much stock in these long term forecasts. Last year at this time, the long term forecast was favorable for the northeast and El Nino seemed all but an impossibility. That said, I like what I see so far.